via Norman,
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via Norman,
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Intrade -- NPR -- New York Times Electoral Map -- Real Clear Politics -- EVStrength.com -- USA Election Polls -- Pollster.com -- 2008 Poll Watcher -- MSNBC -- CNN -- fivethirtyeight.com -- Zogby -- TPM Election Central
Personality variation by region (USA)
And Anne Brown points me to: Topography of Faith
Early voting statistics: CNN -- US Elections Project -- Map of Closing Times
10.30.2008 "Vote-Flipping Diebold Machine Removed, Quarantined in CO" BradBlog
10.31.2008 GOP Voter Suppression: More Miss than Hit The leak of this ABC story is important, too. This is just an inference, but the fact that such a move would become public on the eve of the election seems like a signal from Petraeus to the likely next commander-in-chief that the two of them can do business together. So Coffman's ludicrous ruling to use a checkbox rule to disenfranchise voters who used a valid form of identification, i.e. their Social Security number, was overturned.
Talking Points Memo
10.31.2008 Ohio Expects Heavy Use of Provisional BallotsThe battles could end up in the courts again, revolving about issues like which precinct people whose house has been foreclosed should vote in (where the house is or where the homeless center they are now in is), etc. Also, what happens to someone whose name on the voter rolls doesn't match the name in the drivers' license data base (possibly due to a clerical error)? Both sides have thousands of lawyers already chartered to fight these cases in court. It is even conceivable that the Supreme Court makes a key decision again, as in 2000, and Obama doesn't accept it (as Gore did). There is one level appeal above the Supreme Court: Congress. The new Congress will be sworn on on January 5, 2009 and will count the electoral votes on January 6, 2009. If one or more members of both the House and Senate object to the electoral votes from some state claiming the election there was tainted, Congress will debate the matter. Ultimately, it could vote (with each member having one vote) to disqualify a state because the members do not believe the election there was run correctly. If no candidate gets 270 electoral votes after any disqualifications, then the House would elect the President, with each state getting one vote. It would be messy and controversial, but having 435 newly elected representatives elect the President would be a lot less controversial than having 9 appointed Supreme Court justices do the job. ...
Electoral-Vote.com
10.31.2008 Spencer Ackerman:
According to ABC, Petraeus believes the Syrians can be cleaved away from the Iranian sphere of influence, which would give the U.S. much more leverage in dealing with Iran. Instead, the Bush administration chose to keep relations frosty and to assassinate an al-Qaeda in Iraq leader across the border into Syria, an act that the Syrians understandably find to be an affront, coupled with a "warning" to the Syrians about "clean[ing] up the global threat that is in your back yard," in the words of one senior official. Now, it may be that killing Abu Ghadiya was the right thing to do. If so, the much more productive course would have been for Petraeus or another U.S. emissary to establish some path of outreach to smooth over rough U.S.-Syrian patches like this one.
firedoglake
10.31.2008 The plan to steal Colorado votes DEFEATED! What to do with Coffman?
So what does that mean? Basically, it means that these voters that would have been disallowed as provisional, shall be counted separately as valid after the election, so that in the case of a close election, these votes will be counted first and counted as valid.
Wade Norris:SquareState
10.31.2008 "Transcript: Barack Obama talks to Rachel Maddow 5 days before election"
10.31.2008 A Last Push To Deregulate "Let’s say we do win the Iraq war, and all the soldiers come home . . . and there are no jobs. We’ll have college kids who can’t afford college, people out of work and a very militaristic culture in charge. Where is the racist anger going to go then? If you look at where the Republicans have led us, we have a wider gap between the rich and the poor than ever, and no jobs, and I’m afraid there may be class warfare on our own soil . . . and America will be a mess." "It is a violation of federal law, specifically, a direct violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1971. ..which says no person acting under the color of law shall deny the right of any person to vote in an election because of an error or omission on any record or paper relation to any application, registration or other act requisite to voting, if such error or omission is not material in determining whether a person is qualified under State law to vote in an election... refusing to allow the registration of these voters without further process is a direct violation of their rights. The eligibility of these voters is not challenged; they simply made an immaterial omission in neglecting to check a box." If we had any other leader besides Obama - meaning someone who had been in Washington long enough to lose their bearings - then I would be more sympathetic to the idea that we need "some" Republicans in place to balance things out. One of Obama's huge strengths is that he is not a creature of Washington, what some call "inexperience." Therefore, I say, wipe Republicans away in a tsunami that will force them way out into the wilderness where they can reconsider whether they want to join the American body politic in a spirit of decency or do they wish to continue to divide this country into parcels of political hatred. I'll take my chances with a new generation of Democrats and I want them free to take care of our people. The White House is working to enact a wide array of federal regulations, many of which would weaken government rules aimed at protecting consumers and the environment, before President Bush leaves office in January.
R. Jeffrey Smith:WaPo
10.31.2008 Andrew Sullivan:
The Top Ten Reasons Conservatives Should Vote For Obama
... Those conservatives who remain convinced, as I do, that Islamist terror remains the greatest threat to the West cannot risk a perpetuation of the failed Manichean worldview of the past eight years, and cannot risk the possibility of McCain making rash decisions in the middle of a potentially catastrophic global conflict. If you are serious about the war on terror and believe it is a war we have to win, the only serious candidate is Barack Obama.
The Atlantic via Anne Brown
10.31.2008 Karri Krendl:
"After the vandalism, one of my medical colleagues asked if I wasn’t afraid we’ll have more of this ––more of these racist, angry people stepping forward to harm us –– if Obama is elected," she says. "What worries me more is if what will happen if Obama loses."
Stump Connolly:The Week Behind via Anne Brown
10.28.2008 Tipping the Scales -- Up to 10,000 Registrations Deemed Incomplete in Colorado
Davis says that the Secretary of State's decision not to process the contested registration forms is a violation of federal election law.
Martin Markovitz: HuffPo
For Colorado see also: Are you incomplete?
"Below is a searchable list of over 22,000 voters who have a voter registration status as "incomplete". This information is public record and was acquired from the Secretary of State's office. Only about 6,500 of these are from the infamous "check box" issue. However, all of these individuals can correct their registration information at their County Clerk's office before Election Day."
Steve Fenberg: New Era Colorado
10.28.2008 BanjoBailey:
It seems to me there is no possible way for the diseased Republican Party to rehabilitate itself without a massive, complete defeat. They will need more than 2 or 4 or even 8 years to cleanse themselves of their nativist elements. They have held Presidential power in this country for the last 20 out of 28 years. They have held Congressional power for the last 24 out of 28 years. They have brought us to our knees. They have brought a degree of corruption to power that Democrats could only dream about. Democrats look like "two bit burglars" compared to them.
Comment to article by P.M. Carpenter via Anne Brown
10.28.2008 David Frum, Beaten but unbowed. via Anne Brown
10.27.2008 "Sequoia loses 11,000 Denver ballots" Aaron Silverstein:SquareState.net
10.25.2008 JOE NOCERA: So When Will Banks Give Loans? ... In point of fact, the dirty little secret of the banking industry is that it has no intention of using the money to make new loans.
NYT
10.24.2008 David Sirota: Colorado's Katherine Harris Threatens the '08 Election
...
In fact, Treasury wants banks to acquire each other and is using its power to inject capital to force a new and wrenching round of bank consolidation. As Mark Landler reported in The New York Times earlier this week, “the government wants not only to stabilize the industry, but also to reshape it.” Now they tell us.
... To be sure, there are going to be a lot of election-day shenanigans all over the country, much of it in the shadows. But what we're seeing here in Colorado is a very public attempt to use Republican-controlled offices to potentially disenfranchise thousands and rig the election. Indeed, the Denver Post now reports that Coffman has asked his fellow Republican crony, state Attorney General John Suthers (R), to validate his moves with an official legal opinion so as to trip up potential pre- and post-election legal challenges to the disenfranchisement. This isn't a conspiracy theory - it's happening all right out in the open for everyone to see.
SquareState.com
Electoral College maps back to Lincoln via Electoral-Vote.com
10.23.2008 Democrats: The party gets its act togetherAaron Silverstein of Squarestate.net in Colorado said that the difference is night and day from four years ago. He credits Democratic chairman Howard Dean and his 50 state strategy. The goal of the strategy isn't just to focus on swing states but to focus on winning elections at every level in every state and remake the electoral map. We'll have to wait until 5 November to see how successful the strategy has been. But Aaron said:
Guardian.co.uk
10.23.2008 Good Summary of Obama's and McCain's positions on issues It's allowed places like Colorado to move from red (Republican) to purple, until now this week we have more active registered Democrats than active registered Republicans. For the first time, this week we have more Democrats than Republicans in Arapahoe County, a key suburban swing district in suburban Denver.
Barack Obama has inspired Democrats, and the competitive primary not only got people involved but they have remained engaged, Aaron said. Conventional wisdom said that the long, combative, sometimes ugly Democratic nominating process would hard the eventual nominee, but what we've heard both in Nevada and now in Colorado is that the long fight actually rallied Democrats.
10.22.2008 "AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch" via Drudge
10.17.2008 "A Liberal Supermajority - Get ready for 'change' we haven't seen since 1965, or 1933." WSJ via Anne Brown
I'm going to file this away to read next year at this time.
10.18.2008 Paul Krugman: But that’s the point. Whatever today’s G.O.P. is, it isn’t the party of working Americans. I gather this week from conservative publications that those whose thoughts lead them to criticism in this area are to be shunned, and accused of the lowest motives. In one now-famous case, Christopher Buckley was shooed from the great magazine his father invented. In all this, the conservative intelligentsia are doing what they have done for five years. They bitterly attacked those who came to stand against the Bush administration. This was destructive. If they had stood for conservative principle and the full expression of views, instead of attempting to silence those who opposed mere party, their movement, and the party, would be in a better, and healthier, position.
10.19.2008 Colin Powell: "I think we need a generational change."
10.18.2008 Billmon:
10.17.2008 Dahlia Lithwick: Nuts About ACORN
10.14.2008 Harold Meyerson: Gods That Failed Mr. Bush signed the two measures into law. But he then issued a so-called signing statement in which he instructed the executive branch to view parts of each as unconstitutional constraints on presidential power. I don’t want to suggest that everyone would be better off under the Obama tax plan. Joe the plumber would almost certainly be better off, but Richie the hedge fund manager would take a serious hit.
NYT
10.17.2008 Peggy Noonan:
In the end the Palin candidacy is a symptom and expression of a new vulgarization in American politics. It's no good, not for conservatism and not for the country. And yes, it is a mark against John McCain, against his judgment and idealism.
10.18.2008 Billmon: The Socialism of Idiots
WSJ The New Stabbed In the Back Myth
Daily Kos
10.17.2008
"SCOTUS Sides with Secretary of State Brunner"
(Opinion Here) Believing in vote fraud may be dangerous to a democracy's health.
Slate.com
Paul Krugman:
...
The connection between wrongful voter registration and actual polling-place vote fraud is the stuff of GOP mythology. As Rick Hasen has demonstrated, here at Slate and elsewhere, even if Mr. Mouse is registered to vote, he still needs to show up at his polling place, provide a fake ID, and risk a felony conviction to do so.
...
Nobody is suggesting the Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts are perfect. But the suggestion that Barack Obama, through ACORN, is systematically working to get Huey, Dewey, and Louie to steal elections, and that therefore minorities and people of color should be disenfranchised, is cynical beyond belief.
Coming up with a good idea, with an insight into the way the world works that is really new and that you really believe in, is a deeply satisfying experience. The only thing that is even more satisfying is when one idea leads on to another, when you find yourself making a whole series of related discoveries. When that happens, never mind if you are a shy and mild-mannered professor: you feel like some archetypal hero on a mythic quest. I count myself very lucky to have had that feeling even once, during the development of the new trade theory. It is little short of a miracle that I have been able to experience it a second time, as the new economic geography has taken shape.
10.16.2008 Switzerland Bails Out UBS; Credit Suisse Raises Funds
UBS, the world's biggest money manager for the wealthy, is seeking to stem client defections after wrong-way bets at the investment banking unit led to $44.2 billion of credit losses and writedowns since the start of last year, the most by any bank in Europe. Wealth management and business banking clients removed a net 49.3 billion francs in the third quarter, with all regions showing outflows, the bank said today.
Bloomberg.com
See also: Phil Gramm
Now liberals must turn their attention to the kind of financial nationalization on which we're about to embark. Paulson wants to shore up the banks with public funds but also to continue entrusting our banking system to the same bankers who got us into this fix, albeit with more regulation. But why shouldn't banks that take public money be compelled to seat a public member or two on their boards, as a check against their repeating old follies or committing new ones? Economic Policy Institute founder Jeff Faux says the government should control one major bank to use as a yardstick in the financial sector, just as public utilities constrain the misconduct of private ones.
WaPo
10.14.2008 Charlie Savage:
...
McCain and Barack Obama disagree sharply on the government's role in bolstering the economy. Obama favors public outlays on alternative energy and education, which would not only create jobs but also make us more competitive globally. McCain still supports a governmental spending freeze, though he calls for a $300 billion tax cut chiefly for the rich -- who, given current economic conditions, are more likely to stuff their loot in the mattress than invest it productively. Having spent his career championing the policies that resulted in the meltdown, McCain now champions policies that will turn recession to depression. He's entitled to his beliefs, but the nation can't afford to worship at the altar of these failed gods.
President Bush asserted on Tuesday that he had the executive power to bypass several parts of two bills: a military authorization act and a measure giving inspectors general greater independence from White House control.
NYT
10.14.2008
CIA Tactics Endorsed In Secret Memos --
Waterboarding Got White House Nod
Joby Warrick:NYT
emptywheel: I've updated the torture timeline, and the timing is fascinating (the second memo came, for example, just after Goldsmith and Olson left DOJ, as well as--as the story makes clear--at the same time as Tenet's departure; plus, this correlates closely with the CIA IG's report on torture). But that doesn't really clarify the big question raised by the WaPo article, either.
firedoglake
No wonder Cheney has heart palpatations today.
10.14.2008 Great Graphics: Bulls, Bears, Donkeys and Elephants
As of Friday, a $10,000 investment in the S.& P. stock market index* would have grown to $11,733 if invested under Republican presidents only, although that would be $51,211 if we exclude Herbert Hoover’s presidency during the Great Depression. Invested under Democratic presidents only, $10,000 would have grown to $300,671 at a compound rate of 8.9 percent over nearly 40 years
NYT
10.13.2008 I miss Chuck Todd. Today MSNBC is showing Obama at 264 electoral votes. That's the same number that they were predicting a week ago. Last week, ElectoralVote.com was estimating 329 electoral votes for Obama. Today, their estimate is 357. Something is amiss at MSNBC
10.13.2008 Cernig: "The Poor Losers Of The Right" Crooks and Liars Via Anne Brown, who can read faster than I can.
10.13.2008 Chris Hedges: "America’s Political Cannibalism" TruthDig, via Anne Brown
10.13.2008 "28 Votes: McCain's Record Against Veterans" Political Affairs Magazine, via Anne Brown
10.13.2008 "Greenspan’s Reputation in Ruins—Deservedly So" An article from The Progressive, via Anne Brown
10.13.2008 "The Choice", an excellent, long article from the New Yorker, via Anne Brown
10.13.2008 Christopher Hitchens: Vote for Obama And what if a president and defense secretary think they'll be greeted as liberators in a country they've decided to occupy? McCain lacks the character and temperament to be president. And Palin is simply a disgrace.
Slate
10.13.2008 Maureen Dowd: Are We Rome? Tu Betchus!
...
I suppose it could be said, as Michael Gerson has alleged, that the Obama campaign's choice of the word erratic to describe McCain is also an insinuation. But really, it's only a euphemism.
In high school, I translated swatches of Julius Caesar’s “The Battle for Gaul” from Latin to English while nibbling cheese crackers. To boost the felicitous new trend toward Latin, I enlisted Gary D. Farney, an associate professor of history at Rutgers University, to translate (loosely and creatively) from English to Latin “The Battle of Gall,” my take below on why the hyperventilating Republicans are not veni, vidi, vici-ing.
NYT
This was sent to me by Sylvia, who, no doubt, had Norman in mind. (She also speaks Chinese)
10.13.2008 The Reckoning For more than a decade, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has fiercely objected whenever derivatives have come under scrutiny in Congress or on Wall Street. “What we have found over the years in the marketplace is that derivatives have been an extraordinarily useful vehicle to transfer risk from those who shouldn’t be taking it to those who are willing to and are capable of doing so,” Mr. Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in 2003. “We think it would be a mistake” to more deeply regulate the contracts, he added.
PETER S. GOODMAN:NYT
10.13.2008 Jared Bernstein:
But what if both lender and borrower fail to recognize the risks they're taking on? What if the banks think a debt, whether it's a mortgage or a complex derivative, is perfectly likely to be repaid with interest, right on time, when the reality is that it probably won't be. What if borrowers believe they'll be able to finance a loan when in reality, they won't even come close?
HuffPo
10.12.2008 Nobel Prize Winner comments on the American economy: "New management can’t arrive a moment too soon."
10.12.2008 Anonymous Liberal: The press should not allow them to have it both ways. While I understand the political need for the Obama campaign to distance itself from John Lewis' comments, Lewis is absolutely right. The McCain campaign is playing with fire. They are actively and intentionally encouraging racism, xenophobia, and wildly paranoid and inaccurate beliefs about who Barack Obama is. It's dangerous and if it's not stopped, it may well lead to violence. It is several orders of magnitude more serious and more reckless than even the most despicable tactics used by Republicans in recent presidential elections. When something bad happens, it will look crystal clear in retrospect what led to it. We shouldn't have to wait for that to happen. This is the kind of stuff that McCain's own campaign staff is trafficking in. They are actively trying to foster and encourage the very beliefs that they are, at the same time, claiming are only the views of "occasional nuts."
anonymousliberal.com
10.12.2008 Katrina vanden Heuvel: "The Woman Greenspan, Rubin & Summers Silenced" The Nation via Anne Brown
Looking Good!
Pretty much all the election projection Websites like this one show Obama over 270 electoral votes. Even very overtly Republican Websites like Real Clear Politics and Election Projection have Obama at 277 and 364 electoral votes, respectively. In contrast, MSNBC and CNN have Obama at 264 and the New York Times has him at 260. Chris Bowers has a story on this descrepancy. He hypothesizes that they are afraid of being accused of being pro-Obama and would like a close race since that gets more readers/viewers. He ends with: "So much information is publicly available now that a few nerds obsessed with poll numbers are much better sources for election information than you will ever get from big media." I guess that's a compliment, sort of.
Electoral-vote.com
10.11.2008 Josh Marshall:
Finally, yes, it seems to be unquestionably good news that Paulson has jettisoned his first idea (government purchase of 'toxic' mortgage debt) in favor of British/Swedish model partial government purchase of major banks. But the fact that he rammed through his bailout bill as absolutely essential to saving the economy, only to decide a few days later that we need something dramatically different, does not inspire me with great confidence in his grasp of the nature of the crisis.
Talking Points Memo
10.10.2008 Digby:
Maybe we should start educating people to see politicians the way they see athletes. They certainly may have lots of opinions about what a team should do. But even the most egotistical drunk screaming obscenities from the stands doesn't truly believe that he's a better hitter than Manny Ramirez or that the team should hire a bunch of guys off the streets to play in the outfield. They have more respect for the game than that. It would be nice if citizenship required as much respect for the country.
Hullabaloo
10.7.2008 Billmon lives! Looks like his archives start at http://whiskeybar.org/archives/000003.html
7.21.2008 Billmon does John McCain: "The Great White Hope"
8.18.2008 Billmon: And that, ultimately, is the most depressing thing about this story: Even after the fiasco in Iraq, the bloody failure in Lebanon, the downward spiral in Afghanistan and, now, the futile posturing in Georgia, there’s absolutely no evidence the US foreign policy elite is inclined to moderate its ambition to re-organize the world along American lines. Nor is there any sign the political class (including, unfortunately, Barack Obama) is rethinking its lockstep support for that agenda. The voters, meanwhile, don’t seem to care much one way or another – as long as gas doesn’t get too expensive and the military casualties aren’t too high (or can be kept off the TV). If anything, it looks like bashing the Russians is still good politics, if only for the nostalgia value.
Daily Kos
10.7.2008 "Drilling Down on the Facts in McCain’s Speech"
10.6.2008 The Economist's poll of economists: AS THE financial crisis pushes the economy back to the top of voters’ concerns, Barack Obama is starting to open up a clear lead over John McCain in the opinion polls. But among those who study economics for a living, Mr Obama’s lead is much more commanding. A survey of academic economists by The Economist finds the majority—at times by overwhelming margins—believe Mr Obama has the superior economic plan, a firmer grasp of economics and will appoint better economic advisers.
economist.com
10.06.2008 "HURRICANE IKE CAUSES HALF A MILLION GALLONS OF OIL SPILLS" The Progress Report
10.4.2008 Tim Dickinson: Make-Believe Maverick -- A closer look at the life and career of John McCain reveals a disturbing record of recklessness and dishonesty Rolling Stone via Anne Brown
9.26.2008 Chuck Baldwin: No Amnesty For Wall Street via Kurt
10.3.2008 Aaron Silverstein: That is the name of the bank bailout. Really. Constitutionally, tax bills have to originate in the House. So the Senate took a bill the House passed, gutted the text and 'amended' it to be the bailout bill. Voila! A bill that had been about mental health benefits is now about mortgages and wool. The wool thing is a whole other story. Allard voted No. Salazar voted Yes. Obama and McCain both voted Yes. The bill passed 74-25 with Sen. Kennedy not voting due to health. How Would Wellstone Vote? The national security page of McCain's web site promises to "shore up alliances" and "use all the instruments of national power" to fight terrorism. McCain also claims to understand "that to impinge on the rights of our own citizens or restrict the freedoms for which our nation stands would be to give terrorists the victory they seek." To achieve these goals, the McCain team recently proposed that the answer to US intelligence woes is creation of yet another new intelligence agency, this time a latter-day Office of Strategic Services, or OSS, the WWII-era forerunner of CIA. This proposal takes aim at the allegedly "risk-averse" CIA. "Risk averse" in this context really means "insufficiently committed to politicizing intelligence in favor of the neocon worldview." In short, the McCain view of problems with the intelligence community is at odds with the Obama view. Where Obama sees a "culture of secrecy" that needs to be fixed, McCain sees a culture of fact-based reality that needs to be steered back to the conservative message. The Paul Wellstone Mental Health and Addiction Equity Act has passed the Senate.
SquareState.net
10.1.2008 By Fester: Cruddy FUD from Gingrich
Via Atrios is an succinct summary of why the credit markets are freezing up:
Newshoggers.com
10.1.2008 Frank Naif on changes to the Intelligence community:
the reason why interbank lending rates are so high is because banks don't trust each other. The reason they don't trust each other is they don't know how much and which pieces of big shitpile they own.
One of the reasons why they don't know the value of what they own is that underwriting failed absolutely miserably as no document, and no verification loans were freely approved. These loans were then bundled and resold as securities, and those securities are sitting on balance sheets. Some of these assets sit in Tier I where they are marked to market, so banks have a decent idea of what any loan is worth. Most of these assets are sitting in Tier II which is mark to model with respect to market prices, and Tier III which is mark to whatever internal model tells you it is. Tier III is the depths of the shitpile, and is often referred to as mark to fantasy.
Three elements in Obama's Blueprint for Change stand out as important indications of the direction his administration's intelligence policy would be likely to take. Obama has pledged, for example, to end the culture of secrecy. Another key point in the Obama Blueprint is cracking down on sole-source and related sweetheart government contracting arrangements--a key factor in how classified intelligence contracting has exploded with little or no oversight. He has also pledged to renew US diplomacy. All three of these initiatives could do much to shed light on the rationale and extent of the expansion of US intelligence, particularly into domestic American life. Renewing US diplomacy could also reinvigorate cooperation between US intelligence and law enforcement and foreign counterparts--a vital element in building a comprehensive global strategy to combat terrorrism. Disengagement from Iraq and closure of Guantanamo, two other key Obama policy points, will also help strengthen cooperation with allied governments in the fights against terrorism and nuclear proliferation.
HuffPo
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